May is shaping up to be one of the busiest months for the trading card market in a while. Between Pokemon's Chaos Rising launch, Lorcana introducing Pixar IP, and Magic's Pro Tour shaking up Standard prices, there's a lot happening at once. Here's where the money is moving and what's worth paying attention to.

The Big Picture

The trading card industry cleared $13 billion this year and projections have it on track to nearly double by 2034. That's not hype. That's institutional money and mainstream retail shelf space confirming what collectors have known for years: cards aren't going anywhere.

Pokemon continues to lead the pack with prices up 116% year-over-year across the category. Soccer cards are up 91%, which tracks with the sport's growing North American audience. Almost every major category is trending higher. The floor keeps rising.

Pokemon: Chaos Rising Is the May Story

Mega Evolution Chaos Rising releases May 22 and prerelease events have been running since May 9. Early pull rate data from Build & Battle boxes suggests the set has a reasonable hit rate for chase cards, which is good news for anyone planning to crack product.

Mega Greninja ex is the marquee card and pre-sale prices for the Mega Hyper Rare are sitting in the $80-120 range depending on condition expectations. That number will almost certainly fluctuate once full boxes are opened at scale. The safer play for investors is the special illustration rare Supporters, which tend to hold value better over time than the splashy headline cards.

The Mega Zygarde ex Premium Collection at MSRP is solid value if you can find it. Retailer promos featuring Ho-Oh, Keldeo, and Delphox are free with $15 purchase on launch day, and historically these kinds of promos appreciate slowly but consistently.

Magic: Pro Tour Fallout

Nathan Steuer winning Pro Tour Secrets of Strixhaven with Selesnya Landfall sent ripples through Standard card prices within hours. The biggest mover has been Diabolic Revelation, which went from roughly $2 to over $16 in under a month. That's the kind of spike that makes people check their bulk boxes.

Selesnya Landfall staples across the board are adjusting upward. If you play Standard and need pieces for this archetype, buying sooner rather than later is the correct financial decision. Pro Tour price spikes typically peak within 7-10 days and then settle about 20-30% lower as supply catches up to the initial demand wave.

The broader Secrets of Strixhaven market is healthy. The set is pulling old bulk rares into playability, which is always a good sign for a Standard-legal expansion. When competitive demand reactivates forgotten cards, it creates price movement across the board.

Lorcana: Pixar Premium Is Real

Disney Lorcana Wilds Unknown launched May 15 and the introduction of Pixar characters created instant collector demand that goes beyond the usual TCG player base. Buzz Lightyear and Woody cards are attracting Disney collectors who wouldn't normally buy trading cards, and that crossover audience is pushing early prices higher than expected.

The Iconic Rares, Buzz, Jungle Ranger and Merida, Formidable Archer, are estimated at 1-in-1,500 pack odds. At that pull rate, these cards are going to hold significant premiums. The Enchanted cards, particularly Jack-Jack, are already trading at strong numbers on pre-sale markets.

For sealed product, the new 2-Player Starter Set is worth grabbing at MSRP purely as a gateway product. It's the kind of thing that ages well in sealed collections because it's a first-of-its-kind product for the game tied to a major IP debut.

Sealed Market Trends

Speaking of sealed product, the broader sealed market is heating up again after a cooldown period in early 2025. Modern sealed Pokemon product from 2024-2025 sets is starting to appreciate as print runs slow down and retail availability shrinks. The pattern is consistent: product sits at or below MSRP for 6-12 months after release, then starts climbing once it's out of print.

If you're holding sealed Lorcana from sets 1-4, those continue to appreciate steadily. Early Lorcana has a collector base that overlaps with Disney memorabilia collectors, which gives it a price floor that most TCGs don't have.

What I'm Watching This Month

Three things on my radar: first, Chaos Rising first-week sales data will tell us a lot about Pokemon's sustained momentum in the Mega Evolution era. Second, whether Lorcana Wilds Unknown moves the needle on the game's competitive scene or if it's purely a collector set. And third, the Magic Secret Lair Commander Deck: Goblin Storm dropping May 18, because Secret Lair products have become their own secondary market category.

The card market is in a strong position heading into summer. Multiple games dropping premium product simultaneously creates competition for wallet share, but it also brings more people into stores. That's good for everyone.

---

**What's happening at Hometown Cards**

**May 16: American Legion Post 83 Card Show** — Saturday, May 16. Free entry card show featuring Pokemon, Magic: The Gathering, Riftbound, One Piece, and more.

**Saturday Morning Old School Yu-Gi-Oh** — Saturday, May 16 at 11:30 AM. Community-chosen format, $10 entry with OTS packs and prizes.

**Nexus Night: Riftbound Constructed** — Sunday, May 17 at 2 PM. $5 entry, 16-player cap.

What's Actually Moving in the Card Market Right Now